Saratoga Race #4 – August 6th

Course: Inner Turf – Distance: 1 Mile – Claiming – 120k

Pace Bias

61% of winning horses are front runners (E and EP), while 30% are sustainers (S).   If you’re in the presser, it seems that you have no chance in this type of race.

 

Horses

 2  – Good Governance – (EP)

  • Pace: EP
  • Speed: Very Fast
  • Class: Raced at similar classes before
  • Showing: Hard to win at a higher class, proven he can win at similar or lower class

He’s an EP and very fast, so this horse has a chance.  The M/L is 6/5 so other people think so also 🙂 He can win at this class too. He is starting on the rail, but luckily for him the  1  and  3  also start off quickly so it shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Prediction: 1st to 3rd  1  – Eyes on Target 

  • Pace:  EP
  • Speed: Very Fast

He’s an EP and very fast, so this horse needs some attention.  They have not faced at this class level yet, but the record at a lesser class if very good.  He’s a proven winner, no doubt about that. This horse will most likely be in the mix at the end of the race. The knock is that he’s racing against some horses that have more class experience. Prediction: 1st to 4th  3  – Ocean Atlantique– (P)

  • Pace: P
  • Speed: Slower
  • Class: He’s been racing at this level for a while, but has not proven that he can show.

Since he’s a presser we can simply eliminate this horse.  The record also doesn’t show well for him. Predictions: 5th or greather  4 – Founder– (S)

  • Pace: S
  • Speed: Decently Fast

Historically been racing at a lower class, but last time out was a 107 class rating.  He finished 10th in that race.  He will stay at the back of the pack and unless the field tires at the stretch, he’ll stay at the back. Prediction: 5th or more  5  – Famished – (P)

  • Pace: P
  • Speed: Very Fast

He’s classified as a presser because 2 of his list 5 races he went to the back.  That didn’t bode well for him though since he finished in 8th and 5th. His record is better when he starts quickly.  That said, his record at this class level isn’t very good and can only win at a lower class.  The pace will be too fast for him probably and he’ll fall behind. Prediction: 5th or more  6  – Wicked Fast – (S)

  • Pace: S
  • Speed: Okay speed

He starts the day at 20/1 but my guess is that he’ll go down a fair bit.  He’s won at this class level and if the pace is too fast I think he’ll be prime to jump in and take the win.  He’s a long shot for sure, but it’s worth putting a bit of money on him. Prediction: Long Shot  7  – Casanova Kitten – (P)

  • Pace: P
  • Speed: Okay Speed

This horse has never raced at this class level and he’s a presser.  Nothing more to say about him. Prediction: 5th or more  8  – Turn of Events – (EP)

  • Pace: EP
  • Speed: Good Speed

This horse is a proven winner.  He’s showed in the last 5 races with 3 wins, 1 place and 1 show.  This includes a show at this class level too.  He’s not that much slower than his competitors but maybe just enough to make sure he doesn’t get into first.  Look for this horse to show though, it would be a disappointment if he doesn’t. Prediction: 2nd to 4th  9  – Kinetic Sky

  • Pace: P
  • Speed: Worst of the pack

He’s starting his day at 5/1 but I can’t see this horse being a factor in the race.  He’s raced at this level before but can’t show. Prediction: 5th of more.  1A  – Eyes on Target  – (?) n/a  10  – Two Thirty Five – (EP)

  • Pace: EP
  • Speed: Very good speed

There aren’t too many horses that have the stats to contend in this race but this horse is different, he has the statistics to be a forerunner.  Proven he can win at this class, great speed, loves to show and will be part of the pack.  The bigger downside for any EP is that he starts on the outside and will need to work harder to get up front.  He doesn’t win without the lead and not sure he can do it this time around. Prediction: 2nd to 3rd.  11  – Swiftsure – (EP)

  • Pace: EP
  • Speed: Okay Speed

This horse only raced 13 days ago.  he’s never raced at this level before.  He’ll be a scratch.

Summary

Pace is going to be fast.  Lots of horses that love to take the lead.  There’s only 2 contenders to this race,  1  and  2 .  There are a few horses that have a chance to finish 2nd or 3rd:  10   8 .

Picks

Exacta Box:  1    2  /  1    2  10   8 Long Shot Win Pick:  6