Saratoga Race #5 – August 6th

Course Type: Turf  Distance: 1600m – Stake- 135k

Pace Bias

69% of winning horses are front runners (E and EP), while other types of pace only amount of 31%.


 1 Public Sector
  • Pace: P
  • Speed: Decent Speed
You can eliminate this horse since he’s a presser.  He has shown that he can show this class level though,  Maybe 2nd or 3rd. Predictions: 2nd to 4th  2  – Safe Conduct
  • Pace: EP
  • Speed: Decent Speed
He’s a EP which bodes well for him.  Has been inconsistent at this class level, but nevertheless this horse loves to show.  There was one bad race in the last 5 which is bring down his speed and pace score.  There’s something about this horse that I like.  Let’s see how the rest of the pack unfold, but right now he’s in my box. Prediction: 1st to 3rd  3  – South Bend
  • Pace: P
  • Speed: Okay Speed
Once again, Presser with just okay speed.  Not much to talk about this horse.  Not a great fit for the bias of this track.  Raced at this level lots but okay success, but never a win. Predictions: 3rd or greater  4 – Duke of Hazzard
  • Pace: EP
  • Speed: Very good speed.
He’s been racing harder races so in some way this horse is coming down in class.  Not great success as far as showing.  The last race seems to be an anomaly.  He’s not a sure shot winner by any means and maybe even traveled a bit too much.  Depending on the odds, this horse could be a long shot.  If the odds are too short then there’s no point in ticketing him. Prediction: 2nd or more  5  – Dynadrive
  • Pace: P
  • Speed: Bad Speed
He starts the day at 20/1 and will probably finish worst.  Not a pick for this race. Prediction: 5th or more  6  – T D Dance
  • Pace: P
  • Speed: Quickest
There aren’t too many E or EPs in this race and this horse is too fast to not give it any attention.  He tried to go into a higher class with no success and he’s finished 3rd in the late race at this races class level. I think if the leaders tire this horse has got a good chance.  Long shot pick. Prediction: Long Shot  7  – Sifting Sands
  • Pace: P
  • Speed: Good speed
Another Presser!  Similar to  6  the speed is too good to ignore.  He’s been inconsistent in his pace, but he has never won without being in the lead.  Makes you wonder if this horse will try to take the early lead.  he’s going to have to if he’ll want a chance at the win. Prediction: 2nd to 4th  8  – Somelikeithotbrown
  • Pace: E
  • Speed: Great speed
This horse in coming down in class and he’s won at a higher level before.  Interestingly he finished bad in the race of a similar class in his 2nd to last race.   It’s not a given though and it’s hard to let this horse off of your ticket.  I wouldn’t bet the house on him though. Prediction: 1st to 3rd.


I think the pace will be very fast in this race which will give a chance to the Ps to come in from the back.  I think you sill need to take the  8  since you can’t disregard his speed but no horse in this meet has won wire to wire at this distance/surface.


Exacta Box:  1   2    8  /  1   2   3   7    Long Shot Win Pick:  6