Woodbine Race #7 – August 13th
Course Type: All Weather Track – Distance: 1 1/16 mile – Stake – 150k
Pace and Post Bias
Pace bias on a 1 1/6 mile race at Woodbine on an All Weather Track seems to favor the early starters and horses which are mid pack.
The post bias seems to favor mid pack horses. That said, since the 5 post has had 4 wins we thing that this may be an anomaly.
Horses
1 – Il Malocchio
- Pace: S
- Speed: 92%
- Class: Not a great record at this class level.
- Good finish positions, but not a winner.
- Notes: Raced 27 days ago, on the rail. Not a great pick.
- Predictions: 5th or more
2 – Talbeyah (Ire)
- Pace: S
- Speed: 92%
- Class: Hasn’t raced at this class in the last 5 races.
- Notes: Won his second to last at a much smaller level
- Predictions: 5th or more.
3 – Alydiva
- Pace: S – Can race at a EP level and may just do that today.
- Speed: 89%
- Class: Hasn’t raced at this class in the last 5 races.
- Notes: He can win, but speed may not be good enough to win the race. Most likely will be in the back on pack or will spend too much energy trying to stay up front.
- Predictions: 5th or more.
4 – Dreidel
- Pace: S
- Speed: 83%
- Class: Hasn’t raced at this class in the last 3 races.
- Notes: Horse has not race at this class level, but they won at a lower class. They can win when the pace is right. Speed is a big concern though. This horse has not raced this year. He could be an outside shot.
- Predictions: 4th or more.
5 – Kate’S Kingdom
- Pace: S
- Speed: 94%.
- Class: Horse has not raced at this class level, but the last race was at 100 and they won.
- Notes: This is an interesting horse. 12/1 morning line, the horse is fast, the horse can win, and the horse can start quickly. They raced 49 days ago, which is a good rest. If the horse can get to the front, they can win.
- Predictions: 3rd or better.
6 – Hazelbrook
- Pace: S
- Speed: 89%
- Class: Has not raced at this class before
- Notes: This horse is a proven winner. The downside is the speed for sure and the fact that they have raced 20 days ago, which is not a very long time. The last 2 races had decent speed but not up to par with the fastest horses.
- Predictions: 5th or more. I would pick them better if they hadn’t raced only 3 weeks ago.
7 – November Fog
- Pace: S
- Speed: 81%
- Class: Has not raced at this class before
- Notes: Not too much to say about this horse. They don’t belong in this field. Slow plus will be off the pace. If the horse shows it’s because the trainer has been holding them back for this race. Unlikely.
- Predictions: 5th or more
8 – Inthewinnerscircle
- Pace: S
- Speed: 97%
- Class: Raced once at this class and the last race was close enough.
- Notes: Both times the horse race at this class, they were not close to a win. When the horse wins, they come off the pace. If the pace is slow on this race, there is a possibility that the horse can win. The fact that they only raced 20 days ago, we would not pick this hose.
- Predictions: 5th or more.
9 – Lady Speightspeare
- Pace: EP
- Speed: 100%
- Class: Has raced at this class or above in the last 5 races.
- Notes: We have our first real contender. The horse’s post is good, he loves to go in the lead, and is fast. Won their last time out, but besides that was close but not close enough. It’s hard to discount this horse. Pick them in your trifecta pick.
- Predictions: 3rd or better.
10 – Lovely Ride
- Pace: EP
- Speed: 90%
- Class: Raced once at this class and once close in the last 5 races. 3 races were off the class.
- Notes: This horse consistently loves to be at the top of the pack. No doubt they will try to be there again today. Post is a bit outside and will have to contend with the speed of 9 . Most of the time this horse wants to show, but pace needs to be substantial. If the pace is too slow, this horse doesn’t seem to like it.
- Predictions: 3rd or better
11 – Dreaming Of Drew
- Pace: EP
- Speed: 98%
- Class: Raced at this class level last time out and finished 7th.
- Notes: This horse loves to be in the lead and if they can control the pace, seems to win all the time. My fear is that they are bunched up with other horses that like to lead. I expect them to try and take the lead right away, but in doing so will expend too much energy. Probably a good trifecta pick, but that’s it.
- Predictions: 3rd
12 – Lake Lucerne
- Pace: S
- Speed: 97%
- Class: This horse predominantly races at this class.
- Notes: Tricky horse from a pace perspective. Proven they can race in the pack or from behind. The record is weak though and will need to stay close to the leaders to make have a chance at a win. This is going to be up to the jockey to figure out the best path for this horse.
- Predictions: 4th or worst
13 – Crystal Glacier
- Pace: EP
- Speed: 90%
- Class: Has raced twice at this class before
- Notes: This horse has not raced since last year. Records is not great, plus an outside post with fast runners alongside them. The hope that this horse has is to get in a mid-pack outside position and have a great run in the stretch. Possible, but the 20/1 morning line is probably justified.
- Predictions: 5th or more.
Summary
This is field of mid level horses trying to win a Stakes race. The only clear favorite is 9 . 11 is also a proven winner and should not be discounted. We like 5 as a long shot winner though. Besides the 3 morning line favorites, this horse can win, if the races plays out in their way. They will need a bit of luck. The other horse that you should not discount is 10 . If this horse can race with Lady Speightspeare they have a good chance of mixing things up; they are not the fastest horse in the race though.
Also a noteworthy maybe is 2 . If this horse is ready to take the next step they have a chance to show.
Picks
- Long Shot Win Pick: 5 $20
- Long Shot Show Pick: 2 $20
- Probable winner: 9 $60